But Jehoshaphat asked, “Isn’t there a prophet of the LORD here anymore? Let’s ask him.” The king of Israel said to Jehoshaphat, there is still one man who can inquire of the LORD, but I hate him because he never prophesies good about me, but only disaster. He is Micaiah son of Imlah.”
1 KINGS 22:7-8 (CSB)

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One of the problems with strategic planning is that those doing the planning often see the future through rose-colored glasses. They dream of what could be without considering what might go wrong. Here in this chapter, we see four hundred prophets speaking nothing but victory and only one saying that things would go badly wrong. 

A post-mortem is a process where a team looks back and identifies what went wrong. This is a valuable learning experience. It teaches many helpful lessons regarding what to do differently next time. A pre-mortem exercise helps a team identify what could go wrong in advance. It begins with a question like, “Six months from now when this project has failed, what went wrong?”

Micaiah provided a pre-mortem. He was outnumbered four hundred to one. However, he was right and all the others were wrong. 

Strategic plans without a pre-mortem are only half-baked at best. 

What are you planning now? Have you considered what could go wrong? Who has the kind of experience and insight you need to see the possible problems ahead for your project? What contingencies will you put into place for those possible setbacks?

Rose-colored glasses are best worn when the battle is won, not when it is planned. 

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I will prepare for problems when making big plans. 

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Our Father, deliver us from the kind of planning that fails to consider possible problems. Give us the wisdom we need for setbacks and necessary adjustments. Amen.